Next: Motivation and Objectives
Emergent Phenomena and Complexity
Vince Darley
Division of Applied Sciences
Harvard University
33 Oxford Street, Cambridge MA 02138
e-mail: vince@das.harvard.edu
15th March, 1994
Abstract:
I seek to define rigorously the concept of an emergent
phenomenon in a complex system, together with its implications for
explanation, understanding and prediction in such systems. I argue that in
a certain fundamental sense, emergent systems are those in which even
perfect knowledge and understanding may give us no predictive information.
In them the optimal means of prediction is simulation. I investigate the
consequences of this for certain decidability and complexity issues, and
then explain why these limitations do not preclude all means of doing
interesting science in such systems. I touch upon some recent
incorporation of this work into the investigation of self-organised
criticalities.