Focus Areas

My group's research focuses on the development of novel methods for analyzing and modeling complex systems of all kinds and for extracting scientifically valuable insights from complex data. We are particularly interested in notions of collective dynamics, the emergence of patterns in random processes, population dynamics, and statistical forecasting. These efforts are fundamentally non-discplinary, sitting at the intersection of Computer Science, Physics, and Statistics, and with broad applications across the sciences.

Network Science
The quantitative study of networks has emerged as a fundamental tool for the study of complex systems, in part for its ability to provide a rigorous foundation to the study of biological and social complexity. Our work here focuses on developing novel methods and models of large-scale structure (regularities like modules, communities, and hierarchies) that can be fitted directly to empirical network data, that account for auxiliary information including vertex and edge annotations and temporal dynamics, and that make precise predictions about missing information, anomalies, or future evolution.

Computational Social Science
The computer revolution is generating a revolution in the social sciences, via both the collection of massive data sets on social behavior and newfound ability to test complex theories with empirical data. These changes are allowing us to examine old questions with new data and models and to pose fundamentally new questions about large-scale patterns in social phenomena. My group's work here focuses on patterns in global terrorism, the dynamics of warfare and competition, and the way networks provide a way to bridge the micro-dynamics of individuals and the macro-patterns of populations.

Computational Systems Biology
Fundamental questions in biology increasingly demand answers that consider the interactions of different components or subsystems and the impact of macroevolutionary forces on the large-scale and long-term dynamics of the biosphere. This work spans all scales, including work with paleontologists, epidemiologists, geneticists and microbial ecologists. My group's work includes projects on mammal body size macroevolution, microbial ecologies, and malaria.

    Manuscripts under review

  1. The misleading narrative of the canonical faculty productivity trajectory.
    S. F. Way, A. C. Morgan, A. Clauset, and D. B. Larremore
    Submitted (2017).

  2. Revisiting the effect of red on competition in humans.
    L. Fortunato and A. Clauset
    Submitted (2016).

  3. The Evolution of Primate Body Size: Left-skewness, Maximum Size, and Cope's Rule.
    R. C. Tillquist, L. Shoemaker, K. B. Knight, and A. Clauset
    Submitted (2016).

  4. Using null models to infer microbial co-occurrence networks.
    N. Connor, A. Barbaran and A. Clauset
    Submitted (2016).

    Publications (Refereed)

  5. The ground truth about metadata and community detection in networks.
    L. Peel, D. B. Larremore, and A. Clauset
    To appear, Science Advances (2017).

  6. Eigenvector-based centrality measures for temporal networks.
    D. Taylor, S. A. Myers, A. Clauset, M. A. Porter, P. J. Mucha
    Multiscale Modeling and Simulation 15(1), 537-574 (2017).

  7. Detectability thresholds and optimal algorithms for community structure in dynamic networks.
    A. Ghasemian, P. Zhang, A. Clauset, C. Moore, and L. Peel
    Physical Review X 6, 031005 (2016).

  8. Structure and inference in annotated networks.
    M. E. J. Newman and A. Clauset
    Nature Communications 7, 11863 (2016). [NComms version]

  9. Gender, productivity, and prestige in computer science faculty hiring networks.
    S. F. Way, D. B. Larremore, and A. Clauset
    Proc. 2016 World Wide Web Conference (WWW), 1169-1179 (2016).

  10. Predicting sports scoring dynamics with restoration and anti-persistence.
    L. Peel and A. Clauset
    Proc. 2015 IEEE International Conference on Data Mining (ICDM), 339-348 (2015).

  11. Ape origins of human malaria virulence genes.
    D. B. Larremore, S. A. Sundararaman, W. Liu, W. R. Proto, A. Clauset, D. E. Loy, S. Speede, P. M. Sharp, B. H. Hahn, J. C. Rayner, and C. O. Buckee
    Nature Communications 6, 8368 (2015).

  12. Assembling thefacebook: Using heterogeneity to understand online social network assembly.
    A. Z. Jacobs, S. F. Way, J. Ugander and A. Clauset
    Proc. ACM Web Science Conference (WebSci), article 18 (2015). [data supplement]

  13. Safe leads and lead changes in competitive team sports.
    A. Clauset, M. Kogan and S. Redner
    Physical Review E 91, 062815 (2015).

  14. Systematic inequality and hierarchy in faculty hiring networks.
    A. Clauset, S. Arbesman and D. B. Larremore
    Science Advances 1(1), e1400005 (2015). (code and data) (visualizations)
    Perspective piece in Slate, with Joel Warner

  15. Detecting change points in the large-scale structure of evolving networks.
    L. Peel and A. Clauset
    Proc. of the 29th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI), 2914-2920 (2015). (download the code)

  16. Learning latent block structure in weighted networks.
    C. Aicher, A. Z. Jacobs and A. Clauset
    Journal of Complex Networks 3(2), 221-248 (2015). (download the code) [JCN version]

  17. Forecasting of the risk of extreme massacres in Syria.
    A. Scharpf, G. Schneider, A. Noh and A. Clauset
    European Review of International Studies 1(2), 50-68 (2014).

  18. Efficiently inferring community structure in bipartite networks.
    D. B. Larremore, A. Clauset and A. Z. Jacobs
    Physical Review E 90, 012805 (2014). (download the code and data) [PRE version]

  19. Exploring community structure in biological networks with random graphs.
    P. Sah, L. O. Singh, A. Clauset and S. Bansal
    BMC Bioinformatics 14, 220 (2014).

  20. Scoring dynamics across professional team sports: tempo, balance and predictability.
    S. Merritt and A. Clauset
    EPJ Data Science 3, 4 (2014). [EPJ Data Science version]

  21. Power-law distributions in binned empirical data.
    Y. Virkar and A. Clauset
    Annals of Applied Statistics 8(1), 89 - 119 (2014). (download the code) [AoAS version]

  22. Body mass evolution and diversification within horses (family Equidae).
    L. Shoemaker and A. Clauset
    Ecology Letters 17(2), 211 - 220 (2014).

  23. Estimating the historical and future probabilities of large terrorist events
    A. Clauset and R. Woodard
    Annals of Applied Statistics 7(4), 1838 - 1865 (2013).
    (download the code; video lecture, November 2013). [AoAS version]

  24. A network approach to analyzing highly recombinant malaria parasite genes.
    D. B. Larremore, A. Clauset, and C. O. Buckee
    PLOS Computational Biology 9(10), e1003268 (2013). [PLoS version]

  25. Environmental structure and competitive scoring advantages in team competitions.
    S. Merritt and A. Clauset
    Scientific Reports 3, Article number 3067 (2013). (video presentation, Spring 2013) [SciRep version]

  26. The Blood Trail of the Veto: A Forecast of the Risk of Extreme Massacres in Syria.
    A. Scharpf, G. Schneider, A. Noh and A. Clauset
    Zeitschrift fur Friedens - und Konfliktforschung 2(1), 6 - 31 (2013). [In German.]

  27. Detecting friendship within dynamic online interaction networks.
    S. Merritt, A. Z. Jacobs, W. Mason and A. Clauset
    Proc. of the 7th International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media (ICWSM), 380 - 389 (2013).

  28. Transformation of Social Networks in the Late Prehispanic U.S. Southwest.
    B. J. Mills, J. J. Clark, M. Peeples, W. R. Haas Jr., J. M. Roberts Jr., B. Hill, D. L. Huntley, L. Borck, R. L. Breiger, A. Clauset, and M. S. Shackley
    Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 110(15): 5785 - 5790 (2013).

  29. How large should whales be?
    A. Clauset
    PLOS ONE 8(1), e53967 (2013). [PLoS version]

  30. Friends FTW! Friendship, Collaboration and Competition in Halo: Reach.
    W. Mason and A. Clauset
    Proc. of the 2013 Conf. on Computer Supported Cooperative Work (CSCW), 375 - 386 (2013).

  31. The developmental dynamics of terrorist organizations.
    A. Clauset and K. S. Gleditsch
    PLOS ONE 7(11): e48633 (2012). (video lecture, Summer 2009) [PLoS version]

  32. The performance of modularity maximization in practical contexts.
    B. H. Good, Y.-A. de Montjoye and A. Clauset
    Physical Review E 81, 046106 (2010). (download the code; video presentation, Fall 2010)

  33. The Strategic Calculus of Terrorism: Substitution and Competition in the Israel-Palestine Conflict.
    A. Clauset, L. Heger, M. Young and K. S. Gleditsch
    Cooperation & Conflict 45(1), 6 - 33 (2010). [C & C version]

  34. A generalized aggregation-disintegration model for the frequency of
    severe terrorist attacks
    A. Clauset and F. W. Wiegel
    Journal of Conflict Resolution 54(1), 179 - 197 (2010).

  35. Power-law distributions in empirical data.
    A. Clauset, C. R. Shalizi and M. E. J. Newman
    SIAM Review 51(4), 661 - 703 (2009). (download the code)

  36. On the Bias of Traceroute Sampling.
    D. Achlioptas, A. Clauset, D. Kempe and C. Moore
    Journal of the ACM 56(4), article 21, 28 pages (2009). [ACM version]

  37. Evolutionary Model of Species Body Mass Diversification.
    A. Clauset and S. Redner
    Physical Review Letters 102, 038103 (2009).

  38. Methodologies for Continuous Cellular Tower Data Analysis.
    N. Eagle, J. Quinn and A. Clauset
    Proc. 7th International Conference on Pervasive Computing (Pervasive '09), 342 - 353.

  39. How many species have mass M?
    A. Clauset, D. J. Schwab and S. Redner
    American Naturalist 173, 256 - 263 (2009).

  40. Controlling across complex networks - Emerging links between networks and control.
    A. Clauset, H. G. Tanner, C. T. Abdallah and R. H. Byrne
    Annual Reviews in Control 32, 183 - 192 (2008).

  41. The evolution and distribution of species body size.
    A. Clauset and D. H. Erwin
    Science 321, 399 - 401 (2008). [free reprint via Science]
    Accompanying Perspectives piece.

  42. Hierarchical structure and the prediction of missing links in networks.
    A. Clauset, C. Moore and M. E. J. Newman
    Nature 453, 98 - 101 (2008). (download the code) [Nature version]
    Accompanying News & Views piece.

  43. On the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Attacks.
    A. Clauset, M. Young and K. S. Gledistch
    Journal of Conflict Resolution 51(1), 58 - 88 (2007).
    (First pre-print version: physics/0502014 in Feb. 2005; replication data) [JCR version]

  44. Scale Invariance in Road Networks.
    V. Kalapala, V. Sanwalani, A. Clauset and C. Moore
    Physical Review E 73, 026130 (2006).

  45. Molecular modeling of mono- and bis-quaternary ammonium salts as ligands at the a4b2 nicotinic acetylcholine receptor subtype using nonlinear techniques.
    J. T. Ayers, A. Clauset, J. D. Schmitt, L. P. Dwoskin and P. A. Crooks
    American Association of Pharmaceutical Scientists Journal 7(3), E678 - 85 (2005).

  46. Supervised Self-Organizing Maps in QSAR I: Robust behavior with underdetermined datasets.
    Y. D. Xiao, A. Clauset, R. Harris, E. Bayram, P. Santago II, and J. D. Schmitt
    Journal of Chemical Information and Modeling 45(6), 1749 - 1758 (2005).

  47. Finding local community structure in networks.
    A. Clauset
    Physical Review E 72, 026132 (2005).

  48. On the bias of traceroute sampling; or, Power-law degree distributions in regular graphs.
    D. Achlioptas, A Clauset, D. Kempe and C. Moore
    Proc. 37th ACM Symposium on Theory of Computing (STOC) (Baltimore, May 2005).

  49. Accuracy and Scaling Phenomena in Internet Mapping.
    A. Clauset and C. Moore
    Physical Review Letters 94, 018701 (2005).

  50. Finding community structure in very large networks.
    A. Clauset, M. E. J. Newman and C. Moore
    Physical Review E 70, 066111 (2004). (download the code)

  51. Genetic Algorithms and Self-Organizing Maps: A Powerful Combination for Modeling Complex QSAR and QSPR Problems.
    E. Bayram, P. Santago II, R. Harris, Y. D. Xiao, A. Clauset and J. D. Schmitt
    Journal of Computer-Aided Molecular Design 18(7-9), 483 - 493 (2004).

    Workshop Papers

  52. A unified view of generative models for networks: models, methods, opportunities, and challenges.
    A. Z. Jacobs and A. Clauset
    NIPS Workshop on Networks: From Graphs to Rich Data (2014).

  53. Change-point detection in temporal networks using hierarchical random graphs.
    L. Peel and A. Clauset
    KDD Workshop on Outlier Detection & Description under Data Diversity (2014). (download the code)

  54. Social Network Dynamics in a Massive Online Game: Network Turnover, Non-densification, and Team Engagement in Halo Reach.
    S. Merritt and A. Clauset
    Eleventh Workshop on Mining and Learning with Graphs (MLG) (2013).

  55. Adapting the Stochastic Block Model to Edge-Weighted Networks.
    C. Aicher, A. Z. Jacobs and A. Clauset
    ICML Workshop on Structured Learning (SLG 2013). (download the code)

  56. Location Segmentation, Inference and Prediction for Anticipatory Computing.
    N. Eagle, A. Clauset and J. Quinn
    Proc. AAAI Spring Symposium, 20-25 (2009).

  57. Persistence and periodicity in a dynamic proximity network.
    A. Clauset and N. Eagle
    DIMACS Workshop on Computational Methods for Dynamic Interaction Networks (Piscataway), 2007.

  58. Structural Inference of Hierarchies in Networks.
    A. Clauset, C. Moore and M. E. J. Newman
    In E. M. Airoldi et al. (Eds.): ICML 2006 Ws, Lecture Notes in Computer Science 4503, 1 - 13. Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg (2007).

    Preprints and Other Publications

  59. Data-driven predictions in the science of science.
    A. Clauset, D. B. Larremore, and R. Sinatra
    Science 355(6324), 477-480 (2017). [Science version]

  60. Untangling the roles of parasites in food webs with generative network models.
    A. Z. Jacobs, J. A. Dunne, C. Moore, and A. Clauset
    Preprint, arxiv:1505.04741 (2015).

  61. Synthesis aided design: The biological design-build-test engineering paradigm?
    R. T. Gill, A. L. Halweg-Edwards, S. F. Way and A. Clauset
    Biotechnology and Bioengineering 113(1), 7-10 (2016).

  62. The Academy’s Dirty Secret.
    J. Warner and A. Clauset
    Slate, published online 23 February (2015).

  63. What Same-Sex Marriage Means for the Future of Recreational Weed.
    J. Warner and A. Clauset
    Pacific Standard, published online 24 October (2014).

  64. Rejoinder of "Estimating the historical and future probabilities of large terrorist events".
    A. Clauset and R. Woodard
    Annals of Applied Statistics 7(4), 1895-1897 (2013). [AoAS version]

  65. Adapting to Non-stationarity with Growing Expert Ensembles.
    C. R. Shalizi, A. Z. Jacobs, K. L. Klinkner and A. Clauset
    E-print, arXiv:1103.0949 (2011).

  66. A Novel Explanation of the Power-Law Form of the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Events: Reply to Saperstein.
    A. Clauset, M. Young and K.S. Gleditsch
    Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy 16(1), Article 12 (2010).

  67. Story-telling, Statistics, And Other Grave Scientific Insults.
    A. Clauset
    Nature Soapbox Science Blog, posted 27 October (2010).

  68. A theoretician ponders what physics has to offer ecology.
    A. Clauset
    Nature 465, 139 (2010).

  69. Multi-dimensional Edge Inference: Response to Comment by Dr. Adams.
    N. Eagle, A. Clauset, A. Pentland and D. Lazer
    Proc. of the National Academy of Science USA 107(9), E31 (2010).

  70. Comment on Yu et al., 'High Quality Binary Protein Interaction Map of the Yeast Interactome Network.' Science 322, 104 (2008).
    A. Clauset
    E-print, arXiv:0901.0530 (2009).

  71. How do networks become navigable?
    A. Clauset and C. Moore
    E-print, arXiv:cond-mat/0309415 (2003).

  72. Chaos You Can Play In.
    A. Clauset, N. Grigg, M. Lim and E. Miller
    Proc. 2003 Santa Fe Institute Complex Systems Summer School (Santa Fe, July 2003).

In the Press

Malaria genetics
University of Colorado (October 2015), Harvard School of Public Health (October 2015), Quanta Magazine (October 2015, by Veronique Greenwood).

Network assembly
MIT Technology Review (April 2015), CompassBlogs (April 2015), InsightaaS (April 2015).

Faculty hiring networks
Science Careers (February 2015, by Rachel Bernstein), University of Colorado (February 2015, by Laura Snider), Quartz Magazine (February 2015, by Sonali Kohli), Washington Post (February 2015, by Henry Farrell), Inside Higher Ed (February 2015, by Colleen Flaherty), Digressions & Impressions (February 2015, by Eric Schliesser), Always Researching (February 2015, by Mauricio Luque), Boston Globe (February 2015, by Carolyn Johnson), Santa Fe Institute (February 2015), AAAS News (February 2015, by Nadia Ramlagan), God Plays Dice (February 2015, by Michael Lugo), Daily Camera (February 2015, by Gloria Dickie), Another Word For It (February 2015, by Patrick Dorusau), Science in balance (February 2015, by Curt Rice), Daily Nous (February 2015, by Justin Weinberg), Wired (February 2015, by Sam Arbesman), Wired (February 2015, by Marcus Woo), Science20 (February 2015), Slate (February 2015, with Joel Warner), Cengage Brain (February 2015), The Daily Princetonian (March 2015, by Zaynab Zaman), Chronicle Vitae (March 2015, by Sarah Kendzior), Ritz Bitz (March 2015, by Anna Ritz), eight hundred words (March 2015, by Mike O'Connor), Brandeis University Press Release (March 2015), In the service of Clio (March 2015, by Nick Sarantakes), Science Political (September 2015, by Ramin Skibba), Nature (November 2015, by Erika Check Hayden), Science (March 2016, by Beryl Lieff Benderly), The Philosophers' Cocoon (March 2016, by Markus Arvan), Science Careers (April 2016, by Viviane Callier).

Big data and data science
CU Engineering Magazine (May 2013), Slate (January 2014, by Joel Warner), Haverblog (February 2014), Vox (April 2015).

Hierarchical structure and prediction of missing links
Nature (May 2008, by Sid Redner), SFI Press Release (May 2008), Roland Piquepaille's Technology Trends (May 2008), Slashdot (May 2008), Science News (June 2008, by Julie Rehmeyer), BioEssays (July 2008, by Natali Gulbahce and Sune Lehmann).

Power-law distributions
Nature Physics (May 2008, by Mark Buchanan), Wall Street Journal (July 2009, by Carl Bialik), Science (February 2012, by Michael Stumpf and Mason Porter), Slate (January 2016, by David Auerbach).

Mathematics of terrorism
Nature News (February 2005), PhysicsWeb (February 2005), Die Welt (March 2005; in German), Nature News (July 2005), The Economist (July 2005), The Guardian (August 2005), The Why Files (June 2006), American Physical Society (APS) Bulletin (November 2006), SFI Bulletin (Spring 2008), arxivblog (February 2009), arxivblog (June 2009), Neue Zuercher Zeitung (June 2009; in German), Schneier on Security (January 2010), Discover Magazine (July 2010, by Andrew Curry), New Scientist (July 2010, by Kate Ravilious), Miller-McCune (December 2010, by Michael Haederle), Haverford Alumni Magazine (March 2011, by Michael Haederle), The Bengal Post (May 2011, by Sourabh Gupta), Scientific American (July 2011, by Katherine Harmon), Boston Globe (September 2011, by Leon Neyfakh), Economic Times (September 2011, by Hari Pulakkat), Technology Review (September 2012), io9 (September 2012), Daily Mail, MailOnline (September 2012), Wired (September 2012, by Sam Arbesman), Homeland Security News Wire (September 2012), Bloomberg News (April 2013), American Free Press (April 2013, by Dave Gahary), Financial Times (April 2013, by Gillian Tett), Westword (July 2013, by Joel Warner), 250words (February 2014, by Sam McNerney), Less Wrong (July 2014, by Vipul Naik), BBC Frontiers on Radio 4 (December 2014), Nature News (January 2015), Science Update (radio) (February 2015, with Bob Hirshon).

Macroevolutionary patterns in species body size
LiveScience (July 2008, Clara Moskowitz), SFI Press Release (July 2008), Science News (July 2008), Science (September 2008, by Kaustuv Roy), CU Engineering Profiles (May 2012), Michael Eisenstein's Blog (January 2013), NeuroDojo (January 2013, by Zen Faulkes), Nature Physics (March 2013, by Mark Buchanan), SFI News (March 2013), The EEB & Flow blog (December 2013, by Caroline Tucker).

Mapping the Internet
SIAM News (June 2005, by Sara Robinson)

Team competition and dynamics
The Register (March 2012), arXiv blog (March 2012), Slashdot (March 2012), Snale Technology (March 2012), Slate (January 2014, by Joel Warner), The Diss. (January 2014, by Kevin Draper), Biztech (January 2014, by Ricky Ribeiro), syncsort (January 2014, by Mark Underwood), cabletv (January 2014, by John Dilley), Riverfront City Sports (July 2014, by Justin Gregg), SnapLogic (February 2015, by Nick Rojas), Improbable Research (May 2015, by Marc Abrahams), Futura Sciences (June 2015, in French), Slate (June 2015, by Marcus Woo), New Scientist (July 2015, by Gilead Amit), AMS Math in the Media (July 2015, by Allyn Jackson), Nature Physics (July 2015, by Andrea Taroni), AMS Mathematical Moments (podcast) (September 2015).

Archeological social networks
University of Arizona Press Office (March 2013), SFI News (March 2013), Arizona Sonora News Service (May 2013).